Wednesday, January 26, 2011

The Black Box Fallacy


Image credit: tmenguy.free.fr

Convergence in technology has led some people to believe there will eventually become an omnipotent, one-stop-shop device. This is called the Black Box. It is expected to allow access to all media content, say a built-in computer, game console, and mobile phone, all inside your sunglasses as you stroll along the beachside.

I suddenly remembered the video on Sixth Sense technology invented by Pranav Mistry. This mini-projector with a camera and cellphone can do all sorts of things before thought of as unimaginable. Accessing the internet with its computer, it can obey hand gestures of the one wearing it and perform tasks like taking pictures, getting more info on products and books, and (strange enough) finding out words associated with the person you're talking to.

Such examples of unprecedented advance in technology calls for regulation, lest they be allowed as implements of abuse. Technological neutrality and regulatory forbearance may be invoked to limit the State's participation in making sure they are not used as tools for illicit purposes. But still, there are certain market competition-based factors that will by themselves affect the mass appeal of these devices.

First is that when black boxes are abandoned after their utility, like in planned obsolescence, the user will be left with many devices performing the same task. This creates clutter, rather than being able to dispose only any particularly non-useful device. Second, black boxes are oftentimes the product of technological experimentation. This then leads to impractical results where the user finds it harder to use devices too novel and radical to understand.


One example given is the creation of LG: a microwave with a TV screen. One will only watch during cooking time or while in the kitchen; however, that TV will certainly not be used for primetime viewing. In any instance, consumers would rather use specialized or dedicated devices for a particular purpose. Hence, the trend is not towards inventing more black boxes: a fallacy. This intuitive turn-off to the buying public and accompanying high R&D and production costs will make the manufacturer less competitive.

I believe that, in any event, regulation may be softened in this area where the end consumers themselves act to protect their economic interest. Here, competition must be allowed to bring out the best of what the market can offer. Barring any issues on antitrust or our penal laws on monopolies and combinations in restraint of trade, the public will do just fine. Their decision to purchase a new gadget or not is clearer--they won't be thinking inside a black box anymore.

Richmund C. Sta. Lucia, Post #10

Sources:

No comments: